The Bettor’s Guide to NFL Week 7

October 21, 2016   ·   Justis Mosqueda   ·   Jump to comments

Despite some speed bumps in the first four weeks of the season, we've finally finished over .500 in our picks in back-to-back weeks. Once you get a quarter into the season, you know roughly where teams are from a power-ranking standpoint, which makes it easier to see where lines are overinflated.
You can look at several metrics, be it Football Outsiders' DVOA, FiveThirtyEight's Elo rating or even just the Massey rating, but if lines are significantly different in books relative to most metrics, the truth is that the public, which typically loses money, is buying into a narrative just a bit too hard.
It doesn't always work in your favor on a game-by-game basis, as Baltimore missing the spread by a half-point or Philadelphia's Carson Wentz turning the ball over for the first time in back-to-back drives last week can't be predicted. With that being said, you just need to be right more than 52.5 percent of the time to make some cash on most lines.
Tying in rational powe...

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