The Bettor’s Guide to NFL Week 8

October 28, 2016   ·   Justis Mosqueda   ·   Jump to comments

We're now on our third straight winning week against the spread. The NFL is a bit chaotic early on in the season, but once you figure out where teams should be ranked from a power-ranking perspective, it becomes much easier to find value, even if it is small, in weekly point spreads.
By looking at the advanced math from FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics and the Massey Ratings, you can get a good feel for where teams are at the halfway point in the season. From there, with the assistance of TeamRankings.com's database, long-term trends can be found for individual teams in specific situations, ranging from straight up record against the spread to how teams bounce back from losses historically.
Using those decoder rings, along with some matchup narratives, the ever-changing NFL becomes more linear and clear. As always, we fish for the best lines, on both sides of the line, from Odds Shark, and suggest a side to align with in every remaining game aft...

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